7 golf industry predictions for 2012

There have been good years and bad years for the golf industry over the past two decades. But rarely does a banner year follow a dismal year, or vice versa. Our industry tends to follow the larger trends in the world, and move at a slow and deliberate pace.
Sourced by: www.golfincmagazine.com

So, in prognosticating the next year, it is primarily a task of reading the winds, and then using the past to help foretell the future.

In doing so, the signs for 2012 do not tell a glowing tale of financial bliss for the golf industry. The past year was filled with challenge, and 2012 will bring even more – testing the mettle of businessmen and forcing golf courses and developers to further adapt or die.

U.S. rounds are flat. But flat is the new up. The golf There have been good years and bad years for the golf industry over the past two decades. But rarely does a banner year follow a dismal year, or vice versa. Our industry tends to follow the larger trends in the world, and move at a slow and deliberate pace.

Industry has seen a steady decline in rounds in recent years that can’t be attributed solely to weather. Demographic and economic trends have led to a slow bleeding of about a 2 percent decline each year. But the U.S. economy will experience a modest boost in 2012, and that should be enough to keep rounds flat. Savvy operators make moves to increase their play. But that will mean a decline in play and revenue for courses that have neglected maintenance or other investment needs. This will force more distressed properties to take action — either selling for giving up. Overall, U.S. golf supply will shrink by a modest one percent or less.

Sales and acquisitions. Golf courses in distress continue to work their way through the process. Banks that have held off on foreclosures or that have held off on selling foreclosed on properties will move forward — increasing the sales volume. But the process has been slow and will continue to move at a speed slower than most would prefer. Look for a few larger portfolios to sell before the end of the year.

Private equity. At least three private equity groups have announced intentions and made some deals. While these, and other groups, are reviewing potential sales, there is still a disconnect between buyers and sellers. These groups will close more deals in 2012, but not at the pace they announced when they got started.

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